Divisions inside the Israeli government over the Gaza conflict surfaced this week when the defense minister called for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to present a clear plan of action as troops returned to combat Hamas’s tenacious militants in areas the army had previously fought in.
Defence Minister Yoav Gallant’s remarks, in which he declared he would not consent to establishing a military government in the enclave, reveal a growing disquiet within the security establishment with Netanyahu’s lack of guidance regarding who will rule Gaza when hostilities end.
They also highlighted the stark contrast between the hard-right nationalist religious parties led by Interior Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who denounced the remarks, and the two centrist former army generals in the cabinet, Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, who both supported Gallant’s call.
The right-wing newspaper Israel Today titled its Thursday issue, “That’s no way to run a war,” above an image showing Netanyahu and Gallant looking opposite ways.
In addition to overthrowing Hamas and freeing some 130 prisoners who were still under their control, Netanyahu has not stated a clear strategic objective for the campaign’s conclusion, despite the fact that the horrific offensive that killed at least 35,000 Palestinians has further alienated Israel on the world front.
But supported by Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, two figures closely associated with the West Bank settler movement, he has refused to allow the Palestinian Authority, which was established under the Oslo interim peace accords thirty years ago and is regarded globally as the most legitimate Palestinian governing body, to have any role in administering postwar Gaza. But Gaza’s Palestinian population does not acknowledge the PA as the legitimate government.
Thus far, Netanyahu has been true to his promise of complete victory over Hamas despite his struggles to keep his divided government together. He told CNBC television on Wednesday that Gaza could then be governed by a “non-Hamas civilian administration with an Israeli military responsibility, overall military responsibility”.
Although there is no proof that any such leaders have been found and no friendly Arab nation has offered assistance, Israeli authorities have stated that Palestinian clan leaders or others may be recruited to fill the vacancy.
According to Yossi Mekelberg, an associate fellow with Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Programme, “from Israel the options are either they end the war, and they withdraw, or they establish for all intents and purposes a military government there, and they control the entire territory for who knows how long.” Once Israel leaves an area, Hamas will reappear.
Guerrilla warfare
Gallant’s reluctance to consider a permanent military government is indicative of the high costs associated with an operation that may severely strain both the military and the economy, bringing to mind Israel’s protracted occupation of southern Lebanon following the 1982 war.
The largest newspaper in Israel, Yedioth Ahronoth, cited a classified assessment from the defense establishment on Friday. The assessment put the annual cost of upholding a military government in the Gaza Strip at roughly 20 billion shekels ($5.43 billion), not including reconstruction expenses. According to the statement, the increased military needs would force Israel’s forces to withdraw from both the northern border with Lebanon and the center of the country, resulting in a significant rise in the need for reserve duty.
At least four divisions, or around 50,000 troops, would be needed to seize complete control of Gaza, according to Michael Milshtein, a former intelligence officer and one of Israel’s foremost experts on Hamas.
